3 Mar 2022
Sanctions bite – but how dangerously?
As long as Russian energy revenues continue to flow, Moscow will retain a critical financial lifeline.
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3 Mar 2022
Australia and the crisis in Europe: threats and opportunities
A global contest of values and interests – and sharply divergent visions of order - is now dramatically intensified. -
3 Mar 2022
Ukraine: Winning online matters less on the ground
The information battle has seen the Kremlin upstaged – so far. Early optimism needs to be tempered. -
2 Mar 2022
How long will Europe’s generosity towards Ukraine’s refugees last?
With potentially five million people displaced, the semantics of temporary protection vs refugee status become critical. -
1 Mar 2022
Ukraine: what are Putin’s options now?
Deluded by a belief he would win quickly and cleanly, Putin must now weigh the pros and cons for his next steps. -
1 Mar 2022
Will cryptocurrency allow Russia to bust sanctions?
Despite the transparency of blockchain-based finance, Moscow is working the dark reaches of the web to move money. -
1 Mar 2022
Russia is losing the information war
Ukraine’s open approach is a stark contrast to the Kremlin’s secrecy around its invasion. -
28 Feb 2022
Russia’s war will hasten the drive for clean energy security
Wind and solar is not only zero-emissions – it’s local. And that will cut Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and oil. -
28 Feb 2022
Putin’s hubris foreshadows tragedy – for Ukrainians and Russians alike
The invasion will drive Ukrainians even closer to Europe and bind the NATO alliance with a greater purpose. -
28 Feb 2022
Australia was quick to sanction Moscow. Why not Myanmar?
It was right to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But that’s different to military aggression much closer to home. -
25 Feb 2022
Keeping Australian uranium out of Russian hands – and bombs
After MH17 was shot down the Abbott government banned yellowcake sales to Russia. But then struck a deal with Ukraine… -
25 Feb 2022
Why was it left to Kenya to speak up for multilateralism?
Kenya’s UN envoy Martin Kimani was a sensation at an emergency Security Council session—with a message for all nations. -
24 Feb 2022
Economic diplomacy: Slow dividends for Australia from ASEAN spending
Amid the Ukraine sanctions showdown, an Indian trade deal looms as a pre-election win for the Morrison government. -
24 Feb 2022
China and the Ukraine crisis
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presents the biggest diplomatic challenge the PRC has faced since the financial crisis. -
24 Feb 2022
The election for the future of the internet
A battle for authoritarian control of the internet is underway at the most important UN body you’ve never heard of. -
23 Feb 2022
Russia-Ukraine: Lessons for Australia’s defence
Great powers seek spheres of influence – but there are limits. -
22 Feb 2022
Putin seeks to rewrite history
The Russian leader wants to turn the preferred language of sovereignty and governance back on the West. -
22 Feb 2022
Damage limitation and US nuclear strategy
In an atomic world, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. -
21 Feb 2022
Putin’s choice
It’s a wintry outlook for Russia/NATO relations, over Ukraine and beyond. -
14 Feb 2022
Military operations in a more transparent world
Russia’s Ukraine build-up is the latest example of how some information can no longer be kept secret. -
11 Feb 2022
Europe can’t pass the buck on Ukraine
Russia is pursuing an aggressive strategy of incrementalism and it carries dangers for Australia’s region, too. -
3 Feb 2022
Can the new German foreign minister make a difference?
Calls for a fresh approach from Berlin amid Russia-Ukraine tensions. -
31 Jan 2022
Why Ukraine and Russia can’t agree on autonomy for the Donbas
Moscow and Kyiv fundamentally disagree on the provisions of the only peace plan they have. -
28 Jan 2022
Living with a feared China and Russian-built chaos
Giving way in the face of belligerence won’t make it stop – but nor does aggression portend doom and major war. -
21 Jan 2022
2022 is not 2014: What holds back Russia from Ukraine
Russia’s leadership is alert to the changed military circumstances even while it clings to historic ambitions. -
11 Jan 2022
Fear, loathing and infighting in Kazakhstan
Media blackouts and influence from the Kremlin are stifling anti-government protests in the Central Asian republic. -
20 Dec 2021
European security: Putin ups the ante with NATO
Why is Moscow making proposals it must know are unacceptable? -
3 Dec 2021
Twenty years of BRICS
As analysis by acronym, it has been a stunning success. But for reorganising global economic governance? -
2 Dec 2021
Russia, more than China, leaves India with a dilemma
Navigating Taiwan strife seems simple compared to India’s awkward position on Ukraine. -
29 Nov 2021
The Kremlin may be tiring of the impasse in eastern Ukraine
In upping the ante, Putin might see a chance to break the deadlock while Europe is distracted and the US preoccupied. -
18 Nov 2021
Nord Stream 2: Will you go to the Gazprom with me?
The latest ructions over the Russian pipeline should lead Europe to hasten a turn away from gas to renewable energy. -
2 Nov 2021
Arms control is not just about arms
Getting US-Russia arms control talks on track can weaken the Russia-China partnership and strengthen US-Vietnam ties. -
1 Nov 2021
Is Russia finally getting serious on climate change?
Using hydrocarbon revenues to build green energy infrastructure would be a smart move. Don’t bet Moscow will take it. -
28 Oct 2021
China’s education diplomacy in Central Asia
Where Russian universities once schooled the elite, students are increasingly changing preference. -
17 Sep 2021
China – a lonely superpower
Despite many countries having issues with the West, China has few obvious alliance candidates. -
31 Aug 2021
Lukashenko running on empty
Belligerent and unpredictable, Belarus’ president is still an ongoing source of angst for Moscow and its neighbours. -
10 Aug 2021
Afghanistan: Russia faces its own risks and uncertainty
Regional instability, refugee flows, extremism, and zero appetite for warfare temper Russia’s stance on Afghanistan. -
2 Aug 2021
Russia and Vietnam: An alliance of convenience
Moscow’s interests in Hanoi’s arms and oil make for a tricky strategic juggling act with Beijing. -
30 Jul 2021
Why China and North Korea decided to renew a 60-year-old treaty
Mutual interests abound in a win-win for the alliance of single-party states. -
19 Jul 2021
Russia’s National Security Strategy: Same book, new cover
The subtext of the country’s new security strategy reveals a regime beset by suspicion and insecurity. -
25 Jun 2021
Putin has his generation of fans – even in Australia
The latest Lowy Institute Poll points to a generational divide for those with memories of the Cold War. -
21 Jun 2021
Believing Biden
The US President has persuaded European allies of his values-based policy. But will such faith carry home? -
16 Jun 2021
Russia’s energy sector: Accumulating effects of Western sanctions
Sanctions exacerbated already existing problems around debt and technology. Now decarbonisation challenges loom. -
3 Jun 2021
Nord Stream 2: Assessing Russia’s “serious geopolitical victory”
The US has realised the energy pipeline is nearly completed. But that might not be the end of the opposition. -
1 Jun 2021
Biden-Putin summit: Managing expectations
Plenty of problems could benefit from the US and Russia working together. But don’t confuse talk with approval. -
14 May 2021
Russia–China: An Unholy Alliance?
There is substantial – although not complete – policy convergence on international issues. -
5 May 2021
Authoritarians seek advantage in India’s Covid crisis
China and Russia are on a vaccine drive across South Asia to deliver on India’s fast-vanishing promises. -
19 Apr 2021
Sticks and carrots in Biden’s Russia strategy
Washington deserves two cheers for its early moves against Moscow. But the approach remains fundamentally reactive. -
16 Apr 2021
Russia’s Asia diplomacy
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visits to Beijing, New Delhi and Islamabad showed Moscow still has clout in the region. -
15 Mar 2021
Russia wants to be a power to be reckoned with in the Indian Ocean
No public strategy is defined, but a list of Moscow’s military and paramilitary activity in the region is revealing.